It could also mark the beginning of the end for Russia’s strongman. Ukraine’s “special military operation” is turning into a disastrous quagmire and is reflecting poorly on the Russian leadership. There is no enthusiasm for this war among the young people, especially when news of important casualties and material losses is starting to seep through the administration’s censorship.
There is a new rush to leave Russia before the administration clamps down on this exodus, and this dash seems eerily reminiscent of panicky Afghans trying to flee Kabul before the Taliban’s takeover.
Russia is rotting from the inside and it looks like it won’t be long before it implodes. What happens next is everybody’s guess, but just like Nelson Mandela, Alexei Navalny could be plucked out from the gulag and become head of state. It is a far-fetched conjecture, but in today’s fast-changing world everything is possible.
Unlike a few decades ago, the Russians are not very different from us. When you watch videos from Moscow or St Petersburg, you could easily believe that they were filmed in any western city. The people dress like us and act like us. Many speak surprisingly good English and wear American T-Shirts. You sense a desire for rapprochement and cooperation with the West.
And that’s the way it should be. Despite a few differences, Russia is a western nation, and many of its citizens are eager to rejoin this fraternity. What is missing from this equation is Glasnost and Perestroika first initiated by Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985.
If once bellicose Germany finally managed to be at peace with the world, so can Russia. It just needs to get rid of a few barrels of bad apples and abandon forever any idea of expansion or conquest. Russia is already big enough to think otherwise.
So, to quote Winston Churchill, is it the beginning of the end, or perhaps the end of the beginning? Time will tell, but the signs of decay (and perhaps regeneration) are there. They might lead to better times… unless a desperate autocrat is foolish enough to start a mutually destructive nuclear conflict.
Let’s be hopeful that some people in Putin’s bunker oppose this mad alternative and neutralize him before he commits the irreparable. Our poor planet is already hobbled as it is.
Alain